December Market Wrap
This week the Warren Group posted Massachusetts housing market data for December and all of 2006 (link here). For the month of December they report SFH prices down 8%, and condo prices down 2%. For the year, SFH prices declined 5.8% and condo prices declined 1.2%.
MAR reported their numbers on Thursday. Below are their numbers plotted relative to recent years. NOTE: MAR incorrectly reported (and all other sources I have found failed to correct) that December condo prices were up 2% yoy. In fact, according to the data available on the MAR website (link here), condo prices were DOWN 1.8% yoy. The prices were up 1.9% over 2004 levels, which is where they likely made their mistake.
SFH prices for December were down ~5% from 2005 levels, and down ~2% from 2004 levels. They are still up ~8% from 2003 levels. This is the 5th consecutive month that prices have been below 2004 levels.
Condo sales in December strengthened slightly relative to the recent trends. SFH sales continue to deteriorate.
Both SFH and condo inventories showed their smallest yoy gains since early 2005. Importantly, inventory is still climbing (though much more slowly) and is well above recent year levels. The spring market inventory levels will be interesting to watch. We could see the first yoy decline in inventory levels for SFHs in the coming months.Months Inventory continues to run at high levels as inventory levels out and sales deteriorate.
I'll put together the year end numbers in a future post and try to make some early projections for 2007.
8 comments:
I'm curious about your last sentence, indigo. What is the big surprise about those 3 towns and where can I find the data that you are referring to in this way?
Median home prices for Cambridge, Wellesley, and Newton have not been falling. In fact they have been rising according to the Warren Group (see Warren Group Townstats on their web site):
Cambridge:
2007 $758,000
2006 $717,000
2005 $615,000
Wellesley
2007 $950,000
2006 $950,000
2005 $876,000
Newton
2007 $730,000
2006 $736,000
2005 $692,000
Certain properties may trade at less than the tax assessment or the zillow.com price. But the median price has been rising in these markets.
(By the way, tax assessments and zillow.com are notoriously inaccurate predictors of market price in the Boston area, largely because of the extreme variation in property condition and amenity in the same neighborhood.)
Thanks again for your very useful charts. It will be VERY interesting to see what the spring market holds as tradition has been that people pull slow moving properties off during the winter and relist in the spring. I'm wondering if we'll see an inventory spike with fewer buyers than this year which will then add to the pressure of the market.
Indigo, do you know what the other online deed sites are besides cambridge? I've often been looking for that exact mortage information to know if someone is simply trying to make a killing or are they maxed to the hilt? Specifically I'd be interested in knowing how to find that information for Bright, Needham & Dedham. Thanks!
The Warren Group's Townstats data was published today.
The Urban Core Market numbers for January are all way up year over year - higher condo sales and prices in all markets from last January. That's several months in a row. Perhaps just the good weather? Or pent-up demand from the slow sales last summer.
For those who have access to MLS, inventory in all urban core markets is down year over year.
DT: I know you don't agree with my interpretation of the urban condo market, but perhaps it would be useful to graph this market as well as the state-wide market.
My guess is that most of your regular readers live in the urban core market and would be interested in seeing if a notable discrepancy between the urban and state-wide housing market persists.
nsfl-
You claim that condo sales and prices were up yoy in January for ALL of the urban core markets (your definition). Would you like to retract/revise that statement, or do I have to publish the facts that contradict your statement (hint: check out Dorchester)? While you correctly identified a trend, whether it is meaningful is another question. But the real estate business is sloppy enough with the facts, something this blog was created to address, and I will not tolerate comments that make false statements clearly contraindicated by published data.
DT:
I ASKED you if you would publish the data and track this trend. You act like my mistake was intentional.
I meant the urban core market as a whole. Since you won't publish the data, which on the whole does show the urban condo market surprisingly up, here is your red herring: Dorchester condo sale prices declined from $286,250 to $275,000 over 12 months to January 07, but on condo sales that INCREASED from 50 to 91 for the same period.
When sales increase 80% the comparison of median price is less meaningful.
I just rechecked quickly - Boston, Cambridge, Somerville, and Brookline sales and prices were all up.
I again wonder if you won't present the facts for the areas most of us live in, not just for the whole state, which includes vacation markets like Cape Cod, Cape Ann, the Berkshires, etc, and very different metro areas like Springfield, Fitchburg/Leominster, and Worcester.
DT, you've over-reacted: a polite correction would have served. Perhaps you should be equally intolerant of ad hominem attacks.
nsfl-
I'm sure you'll agree that precision in language is important. Unfortunately, you have not been very precise in your recent comments.
Earlier in this thread you claimed that prices were not falling in three towns, then reported data that clearly showed that in one of the towns prices had fallen.
In a subsequent post you stated "higher condo sales and prices in all markets from last January." I then pointed out that your statement was, as written, misleading and technically wrong.
There are enough propagandists for the real estate industry. When the facts support your argument, there is no need to overinterpret.
As far as me presenting various data - I have a finite amount of time to run this little blog. It is, by title, about the "Massachusetts Housing Market" - not the Boston, or urban core condo market. I do provide links to sites that focus on Boston. But most of the city or neighborhood data I can find is hard to interpret because of small sample size (see the next post).
You seem to have access to more data sources than do I. If you create a blog with these data (a trivial task), I'll be glad to link to it.
The RE propaganda I was exposed to, perpetuated the myth that in the pervious correction, the commuter towns like Framingham, Wayland etc were much harder hit and that towns like Newton and Wellesley suffered minimal depreciation. evet yoruma katılmamak eldedeğilki...
Halı Kilim Desenleri vayvay nehalılar varmış ayfon çin halıları resimleri
Post a Comment