Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Urban condo market analysis: noise or signal?

Here are two sets of urban condo data from highly reliable sources and that on the surface are difficult to reconcile:

1. The Warren Group "Boston" (defined as Beacon Hill, Back Bay, North End, and South End) condo median price for January over the last three years (available here):
2005 - $502,000
2006 - $364,000
2007 - $580,000
That works out to a yoy decline of 27.5% from 2005 to 2006, and a 59.3% increase from 2006 to 2007. Does anyone believe that the median condo in these neighborhoods increased in price 59% from last January to this January? An obvious problem here is the sample size. The total Jan. condo sales for each year were:
2005 - 172
2006 - 112
2007 - 143
If a new project or two comes online during a particular month, it can have an inordinate effect on the median price reported. To me these data are useless without more info about the projects that were coming online, and/or more data about the size and type of units that were selling.

2. Joe Wolvek of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage reports on his website (here) the price per square foot (obtained from MLS-PIN) for three of the four neighborhoods lumped together in the Warren Group "Boston" sample. Plotted below are the data for the past 3.5 years, plus the data for closed sales this year through 2/7:





Price per sq ft appears to have peaked in late 2005 / early 2006 for all three neighborhoods. A simple analysis of the quarterly YOY change in price per square foot results in the following plot:

The light blue line represents the MA statewide change in median condo price (not normalized to square footage). I added this line to show how closely these urban condo markets are tracking statewide trends when price per square foot is analyzed.

In contrast to the Warren Group numbers, there does not appear to be a significant surge upward in price per square foot in these neighborhoods. All three show price per square foot down 2-10% YOY so far in Q1 2007. Perhaps the North End is the critical piece of missing info that would reconcile the Warren and Wolvek numbers. Perhaps not. More likely the Warren numbers for nieghborhoods undergoing rapid development (at ever increasing price points) are subject to inevitable noise and sampling problems.

37 comments:

Fritz said...

Hi Mass Housing, please consider linking to my site: www.HousingDerivatives.typepad.com. Not only do we link to you for Boston cash market data, Boston is a CME housing futures city and is an important component in the housing derivatives world. Thank you for your consideration.

notsofastlouie said...

You focus exclusively on prices, which I agree decreased especially last summer.

But what about the number of sales? You'll find, if you do the analysis, that sales increased significantly over the last few months in the urban condo market (as a whole), and that there has been a discrepancy between urban condo sales and state-wide overall home sales.

alprazolam online said...

We are the best of the best in condos with a beautiful to the sea and we have the best service.

Be one of the ones that have the privilege to enjoy our installations.
Great investment opportunity at Costa Rica Pacific Coast, Preconstruction condos in costa rica ,
Condo sales in costa rica, Retirement property in costa rica. Visit us for more info at: http://www.ramadajaco.com/

costa rica said...

Hello I want to congratulate to you. This site is fantastic, looks like entertained and very good to me it elaborated. I invite them to that they explore a little on my site of the Web
Our real estate listing includes great opportunities on Costa Rica Central Valley’s provinces such as San Jose, our Capital, with remarkable cities as Escazu at the west, or Curridabat at the east, experiencing a great development on both commercial and residential properties, making their real estate pricing highly attractive to investors; on other hand, Alajuela city gathers places with a very special warm weather such as Grecia, La Garita and Atenas, or beautiful farms for agricultural, cattle or nature preservation purposes as those located on San Carlos or Sarapiqui. We also offer land properties in Guanacaste, which is the province, along with Puntarenas, with the most beautiful tropical beaches on the Pacific Coast such as Tamarindo, Playa Grande, El Coco, Playa Hermosa, Nosara, Samara, Herradura, Jaco, Manuel Antonio, Dominical and Golfito, where the real estate business occupies the first place as the local economic activity.
Great investment opportunity at Costa Rica Pacific Coast, Preconstruction condos in costa rica ,Condo sales in costa rica, Retirement property in costa rica. Visit us for more info at: http://www.costa-ricarealestate.com/

Katherine said...

It seems me very interesting your page has very good you photography and seems me very important the informacion that emphasizes. It like is cool. You can visit my page... Costa rica real estate , this about the travel in Costa Rica, you can see diferents beaches and beatiful places that you will go with you family and friends, and you can find information about condos too...for more info please go at http://www.costa-ricarealestate.com

Omar Cruz said...

These articles are fantastic; the information you show us is interesting for everybody and is really good written. It’s just great!! Do you want to know something more? Read it...:Great investment opportunity in Costa Rica: hotel in jaco beach, jaco beach review, apartment beach jaco rental. Visit us for more info at: http://www.jaco-bay.com/

Raul said...

I recommend east site because I consider it very interesting. It offers specifications on real estate properties. It is very simple to know on the image and the culture Costa Rica and mainly to know the height important that it has east country with respect to the investments in real estate related to the tourism.
Definitively he will be very useful for you

Great investment opportunity in Costa Rica:




Great investment opportunity in Costa Rica: jcondos house, costa rica beach condos, condos rentals. Visit us for more info at: http://www.jaco-bay.com/

Omar Cruz said...

These articles are fantastic; the information you show us is interesting for everybody and is really good written. It’s just great!! Do you want to know something more? Read it...:Great investment opportunity in Costa Rica: costa rica retirement homes, costa rica retirement tours, costa rica. Visit us for more info at: http://www.costarica4retirement.com

Diana said...

Massachusetts has been a significant state in American history. Plymouth, Massachusetts, was the second permanent English settlement in North America. Colonists from England founded many towns and villages in the present-day territory of Massachusetts very early in the nation's history in the 1620s and 1630s. The Boston area became known as the, sportsbook, "Cradle of Liberty" for the ferment there which led to the American Revolution and the independence of the United States from Great Britain. Massachusetts was the first U.S. state to abolish slavery and was a center of the temperance movement and abolitionist activity in the years leading to the American Civil War. The state has contributed many prominent politicians to national service, including the Kennedy family. http://www.enterbet.com

Costa Rica car rentals said...

Campeche Beach and Resort, visit us new Beachfront Condo and Mexico Golf Course and Marina.

You can find more info at: http://www.costarica4retirement.com/Mexico-CampecheBeach/index.html

atayala said...

This article is a must read. Thanks for the updates. Reading along your blog. Keep on posting.

Deirdre G
philippine real estate

kimberly sayer said...

Know how important timely and reliable real estate data and financial information is to your business. With more than 135 years of experience collecting and publishing real estate-focused news and public records, it's no wonder that most real estate and lending professionals, marketers, home buyers and sellers rely on our products to keep track of the New England market whether they are local or national businesses.Our products and services enable our customers to see the entire assessor record of a property, view deeds,costa rica fishinglocation maps, find comparable sales, build marketing lists consisting of targeted prospects, find pre-foreclosure records, determine property value or profile an entire community, as well as stay on top of the latest news & events affecting their industries. Our News publications help you stay abreast of the New England Real Estate market, and our custom publishing program will help you position your organization as an industry leader.
http://www.fishingcostaricaexperts.com

atayala said...

I can see that you are putting a lot of time and effort into your blog and detailed articles! I am deeply in love with every single piece of information you post here. Will be back often to read more updates!

Deirdre G
condo in Philippines

Talena said...

The information and the graphics are very interesting and useful. Have you something about lots in costa rica, I am very interested.

britney sayers said...

There are many opportunities for a prospective individual or couple to get into the real estate market.Costa rica toursWhether you are looking for a permanent residence or a real estate investment home, both the United States and Canada markets provide numerous types of housing that will suit your lifestyle and requirements.
http://www.kingtours.com

paula said...

Great blog- this looks very professional and tips very clean. Good luck rolling it out!

Paula M
philippine real estate

Stef said...

Thank you for sharing information. It is quite useful for us also. I always love to read such type of things. lots in costa rica

jomie said...

Thanks a lot for this valuable information.

new houses for sale Philippines

kiara said...

costa rica tours, shopping online, costa rica fishing, jaco fishing charters, costa rica whale watching, costa rica dolphin watching, costa rica party boat, panama fishing, fishing costa rica los suenos, los suenos fishing charters, costa rica fishing los suenos, los suenos costa rica fishing, costa rica los suenos fishing, fishing costa rica los suenos, los suenos fishing charters, costa rica fishing los suenos, los suenos costa rica fishing charters, costa rica los suenos fishing,
ATV tours

http://www.kingtours.com/.

jeffrey said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jeffrey said...

very interesting stats you got there! nice post!

-Philippine Condos

Ephesus said...

I loved every moment of our tour. Istanbul, cappadocia and ephesus are fantastic city. We saw so many historical places and guide was very informative. We definitely recommend it. http://www.packagetoursturkey.com - http://www.touroperatoristanbul.com We visited Istanbul for the first time on your tour turkey tours we are from Cappadocia tours Greece and we just loved it! istanbul tours We finally were able to see sights that we had only heard from istanbul tourism friends who visited I have to say that this trip was fantastic. I had a great time in Turkey. Everything went on very well actually much better than we expected istanbul travel Our guide was very friendly and ephesus tours he knew all details of history. Thanks forerything.

istanbul said...

TTG Travel Agency is a leading travel agency and tour operator in istanbul Turkey with more than seven years of professional travel service. Because of our dedication and commitment to your needs istanbul travel we are able to offer you better quality of service at lower prices than other operators. http://www.istanbulhotels.com We provide hundreds of elaborately pre-designed Turkey tour packages, Turkey tours discounted, Guided turkey hotels and Turkey Tours, and we also provide customized travel service that is organized according to your specific needs and requirements http://www.istanbulhotels.com Our tours are professionally guided, intimate, and safe.

jomie said...

Nicely explained. It's indeed an art to stop new visitors with your attractive writing style.


houses for sale Philippines

Pia's blog said...

Great analysis! I enjoyed reading it and I am really like to read interesting post like this. Thanks for sharing.


condo in Philippines

king of the king said...

http://www.thekingcatamaran.com/   

Costa Rica DMC Incentives

HACKER said...

You focus exclusively on prices, which I agree decreased especially last summer.
Zafir Seba yıldızesmer sinemalarından çıplakshanerini izleme

tci said...

hii blogs post cameles
Zerrin Egeliler turkyıldızın arşivlerinden seçelmelre vard

elizabeth bernot said...

Costa Rica Rafting

World Rafting Championships

Mary Joyce Lising said...

So far, I managed to go though only some of posts you discuss here, but I find them very interesting and informative. Just want say thank you for the information you have shared. Regards


condominium makati

Ray Brickman said...

In the end of the latter, as the world economy dives down, prices per sq ft for homes for sale will also drop. Thus, having higher supply and lower demand.

As of now, condo for rent in the Philippines is at its peak. :)

Ray Brickman
Real Estate Broker in the Philippines

samanthadoors said...

One of the best property in Costa Rica, Indeed a great place.

philippine real estate

Torontocondo said...

People dream of owning the home of their dreams. When the time comes that you are financially capable of buying your own house, you might want to consider opting for one of the finest condominiums for sale in the market.

Condo Market

Justin Sara said...

I have read a few of the articles on your website now, and I really like your style of blogging. I added it to my favorite’s blog site list and will be checking back soon…
The Nautical Condos

Costa Rica Weddings said...


Costa Rica
Weddings
, Costa Rica
Wedding Packages
, Costa
Rica Weddings All Inclusive
,Wedding In Jaco Costa Rica,
Costa Rica Beach Weddings,
Los Suenos Wedding,
Jaco Costa Rica Wedding,
Jaco Wedding Planner,
Costa Rica Married,
Wedding Planning Costa Rica,
Costa Rica Wedding Locations,
Costa Rica Wedding Venues,
Costa Rica Wedding Packages All
Inclusive
, Costa Rica
Wedding Planner
, Getting
Married Costa Rica
, Costa
Rica Destination Weddings


Los Suenos Costa Rica,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Condos For Rent,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Vacation Rentals,
Los Suenos Condos For Rent,
Los Suenos Vacation Rentals,
Los Suenos Condominiums,
Los Suenos Condo Rental

Kate Louise said...

It’s an informative post. You showed some amazing stats about prices of condo per square feet. I want to buy a
condo in Toronto
so I want to analyze the prices of different condos here.

Costa Rica Weddings said...

Costa
Rica Fishing Packages
, Costa
Rica Fishing Boats
, Costa Rica Fishing,
Costa Rica Sport
Fishing Packages
, Costa Rica
Fishing
, Costa Rica
Fishing Packages All Inclusive
, Fishing Trips Costa Rica,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Fishing,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Fishing Charters
, Costa Rica Fishing Vacation Packages,
Costa Rica Fishing Packages All
Inclusive
, Costa Rica Fishing
Trips
, Costa Rica Fishing Trips
All Inclusive
, Sport Fishing
Costa Rica
, Costa Rica Sport
Fishing Charters
, Sportfishing
In Costa Rica
, Jaco Costa Rica
Fishing Charters
, Jaco Costa
Rica Fishing Packages
, Jaco
Costa Rica Sport Fishing