Median Price - Condo

This plot shows the median price of a condo (thousands of $) in Massachusetts for the last three years. The data are freely available from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. As with the prices for single family homes, the prices have flattened noticeably in 2005. We are now at median prices below those achieved as early as May of 2004. A cross-over to year over year losses looks imminent, especially with continuing condo construction evident around the Boston metro area and swelling inventories.

The Boston Herald has an assessment of the November numbers, with typical spin from various interested parties. The Boston Globe has a similar report.

Note: The MAR switched from reporting average price to median price in 2003; the raw data go back much farther in time, but for the sake of accurate comparisons I am only plotting median data here.

-DT

Median Price - Single Family Home

This plot shows the median price of single family homes in Massachusetts for the last three years. The data are freely available from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. The seasonal patterns in price change are clear and consistent. The distinguishing characteristic of the plot is the flattening of prices in 2005 relative to previous years, showing a slowing of appreciation. My guess is that this represents the limits of affordability, coupled with the recent increases in inventory (more to come on this) and mortgage rates.

-DT

November Market Analysis

Today the Mass. Assoc. of Realtors released sales data for the month of November. These lagging data show the continuation of trends that have developed over 2005 - slowing sales, and price appreciation dropping from double digits, to single digits, and now close to flatline. No year over year decreases yet, but the trend is ominous.

Over the next couple days I will post historical data for single family and condo prices and sales for the last three years. I think these give the best indication of where we've been.

-DT