Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Sales and Inventory Trends

As detailed in the previous post, sales in MA in July were weak across the board. For comparison, here are the monthly sales figures (up to July) for the last 5 years:

The slowdown in SFH sales appears to be accelerating this summer.

Monthly condo sales were at record levels as recently as the 1st Q of 2006, but this summer sales have slowed rapidly, retreating to ~2003 levels in July.

Months inventory for the market as a whole continues to paint a picture of weakness, although the surge in inventory from 2005 levels has slowed. The bigger problem now is with slowing sales.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

July Market Wrap

This week saw the release of July market stats for Massachusetts.

First up, data from the Warren Group (reported here):
SFH sales: 5,070(down 27% YOY)
SFH median price: $339,000 (down 6.1% YOY)
Condo sales: 2,692 (down 23.5% YOY)
Condo median price: $277,000 (down 4.2% YOY)

Next up, data from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (reported here):
SFH sales: 3,982 (down 25.3% YOY)
SFH median price: $361,750 (down 3.5% YOY)
Condo sales: 1,883 (down 21.4% YOY)
Condo median price: $276,000 (down 4.1% YOY)

For those graphically inclined, here are the MAR price and inventory data relative to recent history. First up, SFH numbers:

(Note the inventory numbers reflect corrections for June by MAR).

Here are the condo figures:

I'll post the sales graphs soon, along with the trend in months inventory. Needless to say, the numbers for July were unquestionably weak. The "soft-landing" scenario of moderate price growth seems to have suffered a rapid demise. The question of the day now is: how far down will prices go?

Sunday, August 20, 2006

2nd Quarter Weakness

According to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, statewide 2nd Quarter sales (April, May, June) of SFHs fell sales fell 10.6%, and condo sales fell 8.9% year over year. Median price declines were more modest, down 1.3% for SFHs and essentially flat for condos YOY. The Warren Group reported similar numbers, with SFH sales off 11.7%, condo sales off 10.9%, SFH prices off 2.9% and condo prices inching up 0.7% (details here). For a recent historical perspective, here are the MAR reported YOY % changes in median price and sales for the last 8 quarters.

The SFH sales market began to contract in the 2nd Quarter of 2005. This quarter the Condo market joined in the contraction.

Median prices for SFHs and Condos are now clearly at or below year ago levels.