Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Boston "Urban Core Condo Market" Performance

Prompted by a frequent commenter, I downloaded condo stats from the Warren Report (link here) for all of 2005 and 2006. For this analysis I included all Boston neighborhoods, as well as Cambridge, Brookline, and Somerville (my "Urban Core Condo Market"). I then excluded West Roxbury, Roslindale, Hyde Park, and Mattapan from this analysis because these are the four smallest condo markets, each has the same or more SFH sales as condos, and I wanted to focus on condo-dominated neighborhoods. (Note: The Warren Report defines Boston as Beacon Hill, Back Bay, North End, South End, so I don't have breakouts for these neighborhoods)

First up, lets look at condo sales in 2005 and 2006 for these markets. To aid comparisons, I've labeled the % change comparing 2006 to 2005.

Only two markets showed an increase in sales, Dorchester (up 33.9%) and Somerville (up 17.7%). In every other market sales declined (sometimes precipitously), though the largest market (Boston) shows a modest decline (-1.4%). The total number of sales in these market declined 8.4% YOY.

Here are the median condo price figures for 2005 and 2006.

The only markets with an increase in median condo prices are Dorchester (up 5.5%) and JP (up 0.3%). Every other market is down YOY. On a sales weighted average basis, prices in these markets are down 2.3% YOY.

Interpret as you will. I doubt this will change anyone's mind about the state or trajectory of the market. The purpose is to provide a complete analysis, using year over year numbers and including all relevant neighborhoods, as a basis for discussion.


TheLievense said...

Thanks, it's interesting to see that the "urban condo" market isn't as soft as the rest of the state, but there is certainly softness there.

Of course the one thing that all of the released stats are missing is the incentives that sellers are adding to the pot to get people to purchase (such as free upgrades to fixtures, countertops, appliances, etc).

2007 is going to be the big year though because of the coming tsunami of foreclosures that may occur. If that happens, not even the "urban condo" market will be able to resist the undertow.

notsofastlouie said...

It's great to see the data graphed out.

In fact, Urban Core Market condo sales had decreased substantially year over year in the SUMMER of 06 - much more than the yearly averages.

But since the FALL SEASON they have been HIGHER than last year's numbers. How does one explain the sudden increase in sales?

A note on Urban Condo supply: See the last page of the Otis&Ahearn mid-year report (link below): it shows the construction pipeline for condos in the "urban Core market." According to the report, most condo units in major developments to be completed in 2007 are pre-sold, only about 1,500 units left out of 4,000 new construction units.

Here's the link.

notsofastlouie said...

Another try:

notsofastlouie said...

I'm typing it in but it's not registering. Last try:

OnPoint said...

A question more than a comment...have you come across any quantitative data or research indicating the expected effect of the trillions of dollars in ARM's readjusting in 2007 and/or 2008?

OnPoint said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
stuckinthecity said...

Link to my blog about Chicago RE.

Urban pioneers settle in, hoping their investment pays off

paula said...

Great performance in Boston Condo Market.

Paula M
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Torontocondo said...

With the high price of single family homes, condominiums and townhouses are becoming more attractive to many buyers.

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