Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Preliminary 3rd Q Analysis - Bear Market Deepens

With the September market stats now in hand we have the all raw data for the 3rd Quarter (July-August-Sept). The official numbers for Q3 won't be released by MAR for another few weeks, but I've estimated the year over year (YOY) results and come up with similar findings to those of the Warren Group (link). Notably, sales trends are weakening dramatically, and price declines are growing more pronounced. Not even a remote sign of a bottom in these data.

Monday, October 23, 2006

September Price and Inventory Stats

The MAR released September market stats today (link). Here are their reported median prices for SFHs and condos in relation to historical trends:

SFH prices for September are ~5% below 2005 levels, and ~1.5% below 2004 levels. The median price for sold condos was level with 2005.

While there's been noise recently about the market "bottoming," including a front page report in the Boston Globe today (link), the inventory picture does not show any signs of a market bottom:

The plot shows "months inventory," which is the ratio between total unsold inventory (SFH and condos) and total sales for the last 3+ years. While inventory level dipped briefly below 9 months in June of this year, the surge back above 12 months shows continued weakness relative to historical inventory/sales levels.

More details to follow...