Tuesday, February 07, 2006

RE cheerleaders changing their tune

First up, the always quotable David Lereah, chief economist at the NAR:

August 12, 2005:
SmartMoney: Do you think the real-estate market will still be able to provide a sound investment?
David Lereah: Real estate is still a great investment opportunity for households. Price appreciation will continue. It may not be at 20%. It may be at 10% to 15%, or may even go down to 5%... You don't need a 20% price appreciation to do well. You could still have price appreciation of 10% and beat most stocks. I think for the remaining years of this decade real estate will still be a good investment... The fundamentals are there. The demography trends and population trends are there. It's a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Feb. 7, 2006:
"Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that real estate is cyclical," he said. Lereah said the national median existing-home price for all housing types is expected to rise 5 percent to $219,200 -- a rate of increase far below the double-digit annual gains notched during a five-year market rally.

This is the same David Lereah who wrote:
Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? : The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them. Published February 22, 2005

His previous book coincided with a major market peak:
The Rules for Growing Rich : Making Money in the New Information Economy
Published June 27, 2000

And what about Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers, who sold more than $120 million worth of stock and was paid more than $31 million in 2005 while spouting the following:

October 2, 2005:
Insana: But are the solid housing fundamentals that everyone's talked about for the last couple of years supportive to housing through 2006?
Toll: And '07, '08, '09 and '10. Absolutely.

February 7, 2006:
Toll also said slowing demand and delays obtaining inspections, certificates of occupancy and utility hookups forced it to cut its outlook to sales of 9,200 to 9,900 homes during the fiscal year ending Oct. 31 from a previously lowered view of 9,500 to 10,200. (Toll Brothers rattled the market in November when it first cut its forecast range from 10,200 to 10,600).

New orders during the quarter fell to 1,572 from 2,209, while the value of the contracts declined 21 percent to $1.16 billion.


Pinch a Penny said...

Lets see. First it was Enron. Then MCI, then Global Crossing, Then Nortel. Why do we even get amazed when the talking heads in the corporate world open their mouth? Every time they say something, it is for their benefit, not ours. Bob Troll was just covering his position long enough so that he could sell his stock, and options. Nothing to see here.

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