Sunday, January 01, 2006

SFH Sales and Inventory

Below I've posted the monthly sales and inventory levels for single family homes in Massachusetts (compiled from the Mass. Assoc. of Realtors) over the past 6 and 3.5 years, respectively. Sales have been fairly consistent over the 6 year span, with inconsistent but gradual increases. The trend appears to be slowing in 2005, but also slowed in 2002.

What is more intriguing is the striking jump in inventory in 2005. It started in the spring, leading to big gains in inventory throughout the summer, followed by a late summer spike of truly unusual proportions. Then, as suddenly as this spike appeared, it dissipated. Speculative sellers seeing what the market would bear, or hidden inventory waiting to come back on the market this spring? Cleary, the scope of the ballooning inventory will determine the fate of the market over the coming months.


6 comments:

RealEstateCafe said...

DT,

Excellent set of graphics. Thanks for your contribution to growing awareness that the Boston / Massachusetts housing market is poised for a downturn. While that's a disappointment for some (like your first commenter a few days ago), and a reason for others to pat themselves on the back for timing the market correctly or sitting it out all together.

Would you be interested in getting together with other real estate bloggers in Boston, particularly those following the bubble, periodically in 2006 as proposed in this entry on The Real Estate Cafe's blog:
http://tinyurl.com/8dyuf

Readers would also have the opportunity to join us, and that's where the real peer-to-peer learning could come in. That, afterall, is what blogs should be about and your graphs have advanced my own knowledge of what's going on.

rent to own said...

I have been waiting for an MA blog-the housingbubble2 is not friendly to MA and most people don't have a clue about our market.

If you want to draw traffic keep posting on other blogs and put a link in your comments.

I would also recommend that you edit and allow your profile to be viewed- people want to know. Ben Jones profile has been viewed thousands on times.

DT said...

Thanks for the feedback and suggestions. It certainly promises to be an interesting year in the MA market. Realestatecafe, I'm game to join others to discuss the market, but I'm certainly no expert, just an interested observer.

indigo said...

Thanks for the informative plots on MA/BOS inventory and sales. Since you have access to this data, could you possibly also post it as tables, so that we could explore other ways of estimating trends? Perhaps you could periodically update it -- for instance when the Dec 2005 data becomes available.

Another suggestion would be for readers to post their pet examples of

1. outragreous asking prices,

2. big price drops and

3. big spreads between ask and sale price.

For instance:

1. 201 Lake St, Arlington MA, had a price drop from $700k to $650k in October 05 and just came back at $1050k!

2. 11 Frederick Street, Newton MA, listed May 05 at $835 and had 9 price drops to $730 -- now under agreement.

DT said...

indigo-

I'll try to include a table when I update with the December numbers.

I also like the idea of posting weirdness from the current market, like the examples you cite. Once (if?) we get a critical mass of readers and comments, I'll try to incorporate this idea. I for one have been watching the reductions on a ridiculously overpriced condo in my neighborhood - now down $75K from a starting price of $650K!

Greg said...

self help books what about it..self help books Here it is now its up to you...