April numbers came out this week from both the Warren Group (covered here in the Globe and here in the Herald) and the MAR (here). Given the historical numbers available from MAR, I'll continue to post updates based on their market stats.
The biggest surprise was the drop in sales from both last year and, shockingly, from last month. Typically sales rise throughout the spring, but that pattern was disrupted this year. SFH sales dropped 10% from last year and 5% from last month. Condo sales dropped 10% from last year and 3% from last month. The drop in condo sales is especially unexpected, given the strength in condo sales until now.
SFH prices recovered somewhat, and were basically flat from last year (up 0.3%).
Condo prices took it on the chin, and were down 2.5% compared to last year. The first drop in 88 months. The condo price chart is suddenly exhbiting an ominous trend.
The unsold inventory of SFHs continues to surge...While condo inventories continue to build at an accelerating rate.
Below I've plotted the Months Inventory of combined SFHs and Condos to give a unified picture of the market's current state. Keep in mind MAR puts a balanced market at ~7.5-8.5 months inventory.
To put the surging inventory levels into historical perspective, here's the yearly appreciation rates and inventory for the last 15 years. Notably, inventory levels above 12 months have historically been associated with declining prices.